A short forecast of which businesses, in my view, make sense to build now with the approaching technological singularity in mind.
The obvious answer seems to be AI and robotics. But in the long run I struggle to see a place for startups there. Some will, of course, make quick money. The next Lovables and Cursors will rise and fall. But the core strategic value will most likely stay with OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Apple and other owners of models, compute and base infrastructure.
There is another big trend, which I call relatedness — closeness, belonging, live contact between beings. In Wilber’s terms it was something like the antonym of agency — communion.
Intelligence, content, entertainment and digital services will become nearly infinite and very cheap. Attention, care, presence, relationships and physical contact will remain limited. And so they will be valued more and more.
From this I see several directions.
Education
AI will be able to run a child’s educational track, see their strengths and weaknesses, explain anything in the world, pick assignments and build a personalized program better than the average teacher.
But few people will want their kids to just sit at home alone with an AI.
So education will stay physical. Only the value of a school will be less and less about transferring knowledge. School will become the place where kids learn to interact, make friends, have conflicts, work together, make things with their hands, and talk to adults they trust.
The same goes for kindergartens and even universities. I think entirely new formats of physical educational spaces will emerge, where AI runs the individual learning track and people are responsible for relationships, environment, projects and growing up.
Animals
People often find it easier to fully open up to a dog than to another human. From a dog you get unconditional love without fear of judgment, betrayal and all the complicated human shit.
So animals are increasingly becoming full members of the family. There are fewer children, the emotional role of animals is growing, and with it the spending and the demands on quality of care.
Veterinary medicine, diagnostics, individually cooked food, rehabilitation, longevity, animal mental wellbeing, travelling with them — all of it will grow.
And good hotels, where a dog isn’t left in a cage for a week waiting for its owner. Where it lives a normal dog life, socializes, walks, plays, gets attention and care.
Communities and places
Virtual communities will more and more often get an extension in the physical world.
Places built specifically for deep interaction between people will grow: retreat centers, onsens, festivals, private clubs, small settlements, colivings, some new formats.
Communities for ageing belong here too.
A much stronger model is one where people move to a beautiful place while still in their 60s–70s, make friends there, eat together, exercise, learn, travel. And medical care is added gradually as needed. Something between a university campus, a resort, a club and a clinic.
Mental health and spirituality
Mental health care will penetrate schools, companies, communities and ordinary everyday life. Much of it will be AI-assisted. AI will be able to continuously observe a person’s state, notice patterns and help much earlier than a person reaches a therapist today.
At the same time, the involvement of another human will remain a value of its own.
And if we really are moving toward a post-scarcity society, work will no longer be able to distract people from themselves. Right now a huge number of people cope with their inner problems simply because they have no time to think about them.
When the need to grind ten hours a day disappears, all of it will come out. So everything related to psychology, spirituality, practices, altered states and the search for meaning will grow.
Land in beautiful places
Although I generally believe there should be no private ownership of land, good places near forests, mountains, rivers and seas will get more expensive.
In the digital world you can produce new spaces endlessly. In the physical world there is a limited number of beautiful places. And if people work less and look more for connection, experiences and meaning, the value of such places will grow even more.
Especially those where you can build communities, schools, clinics, retreat centers and other spaces for living together.
A school, a dog hotel, a mental health clinic, a festival, an onsen and a longevity community look like different businesses. But deep down they sell roughly the same thing — care, belonging and live contact between beings.